根據(jù)美國(guó)最大的行業(yè)研究出版商IBIS的調(diào)查預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)的鋼鐵鑄造收入在今后五年中年均增長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)9.7%，到2016年收入將達(dá)約8.67億人民幣（1.37億美元）。 在過(guò)去五年中由于下列原因中國(guó)該行業(yè)的收入增長(zhǎng)沒(méi)這么高：預(yù)期的人民幣升值；不穩(wěn)定的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)形式對(duì)中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響；和總體市場(chǎng)需求增速減緩。另外，原材料尤其是鐵礦石的價(jià)格上升的預(yù)期也給這個(gè)行業(yè)添加了額外的壓力。
中國(guó)已經(jīng)成長(zhǎng)為世界上最大的鋼鐵鑄造生產(chǎn)基地。中國(guó)在過(guò)去7年中鋼鐵鑄件的產(chǎn)量一直居各國(guó)首位。在2002年中國(guó)鋼鐵鑄造產(chǎn)量達(dá)到1630萬(wàn)噸，相當(dāng)于美國(guó)和日本同期鑄造鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的總和。而中國(guó)鋼鐵鑄造產(chǎn)出持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，到2008年時(shí)達(dá)到年產(chǎn)3350萬(wàn)噸。IBIS預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)2011年的鋼鐵鑄造總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到4660萬(wàn)噸。
在過(guò)去五年中，受中國(guó)低成本勞動(dòng)力的吸引，來(lái)自包括美國(guó)、日本、德國(guó)和英國(guó)等國(guó)的外資鑄造企業(yè)投資逐年遞增。但是在中國(guó)的鑄造廠生產(chǎn)的鑄件科技含量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于在美國(guó)生產(chǎn)的鑄件。美國(guó)鑄件產(chǎn)量位居世界第二。在過(guò)去5年中原材料如生鐵、焦炭和鋼廢料的價(jià)格急劇上漲也給這個(gè)行業(yè)造成了負(fù)面影響。由于成本高質(zhì)量低，利潤(rùn)也少了。在今后五年中鑄造企業(yè)需要投資先進(jìn)設(shè)備和先進(jìn)技術(shù)來(lái)增加效率，提高產(chǎn)品的價(jià)值和減少?gòu)U品率?，F(xiàn)在中國(guó)鑄造業(yè)的廢品率高達(dá)20%。
在2010年這個(gè)行業(yè)逐漸走出金融危機(jī)的陰影。受益于產(chǎn)量的增加和產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的上漲同年行業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)了28.5%達(dá)到4.58億人民幣（7270萬(wàn)美元）。由于核電和水電工業(yè)需求的增加和37億元（5.91億美元）用于灌溉的政府投資，預(yù)計(jì)2011年國(guó)內(nèi)需求還會(huì)增加。受此影響2011年該行業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)將達(dá)到19%。
------------------------翻譯：中國(guó)鑄造網(wǎng) -----------------------------
Over the next five years, the Iron and Steel Casting industry in China is forecast to experience revenue growth by an average annual rate of 9.7%, to reach $137.6 billion in 2016. Growth will be lower than it was over the past five years due to the following: expected appreciation of the RMB; Europe's volatile economic situation, which will negatively affect Chinese exports; and overall slower growth in market demand. In addition, the prices of raw materials, especially iron ore, are forecast to increase, adding a burden to the industry, according to IBISWorld, America’s largest publisher of industry research.
Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) December 17, 2011
Over the next five years, the Iron and Steel Casting industry in China is forecast to experience revenue growth by an average annual rate of 9.7%, to reach $137.6 billion in 2016. Growth will be lower than it was over the past five years due to the following: expected appreciation of the RMB; Europe's volatile economic situation, which will negatively affect Chinese exports; and overall slower growth in market demand. In addition, the prices of raw materials, especially iron ore, are forecast to increase, adding a burden to the industry, according to IBISWorld, America’s largest publisher of industry research.
China has grown to be the largest production base for iron and steel casting in the world. By volume, China's annual casting output has been the highest in the world for the past seven years, producing 16.3 million tons of castings in 2002, equal to the United States' and Japan's combined output. This increased steadily to 33.5 million tons in 2008. IBISWorld forecasts that China's casting output will total 46.6 million tons in 2011.
Over the past five years, low labor costs in China attracted increased investment from foreign casting enterprises, including those from the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain. However, the technological content of casting made in Chinese foundries was far lower than those produced in the United States, which ranked second in the world in casting output. Price surges in raw materials, such as pig iron, coke and steel scrap, also negatively affected the industry over the past five years. With these higher costs and lower quality, profitability decreased. In the next five years, enterprises will need to invest in advanced equipment and technology to increase efficiencies, add value to the products and reduce defective goods, which currently make up about 20% of total output.
In 2010, the industry gradually recovered from the financial crisis. Industry revenue increased by 28.5% to $72.7 billion due to accelerating casting output growth and rising product prices. Domestic demand is expected to grow in 2011 due to the rapid demand growth in nuclear and hydropower industries and the $590.8 billion government investment on irrigation construction. This will help industry revenue to grow by 19.0% for the year.
